Michigan, Florida, and Superdelegates: A Lose Lose Lose Situation
Now we’ve really got our hands full. Between the superdelegates and the situation in Michigan and Florida this is gonna be one for the history books–and maybe future constitutional law textbooks. Hillary’s big wins on Tuesday night did two things; 1) they complicated the superdelegate situation by giving her a credible argument for why the superdelegates should line up behind her, and 2) they reignited the arguments over what the DNC should do with the votes cast in Florida and Michigan.
The superdelegate problem always boils down to the same basic question. Should they side with the candidate that has won the greatest number of votes, or should they support the one who will likely have the greatest momentum going into November? Some would even argue that the role of the superdelegate is not a confirmatory one, but rather that of a steering committee, and that they should pledge to the candidate that they believe to be best for the party, regardless of what voters think. The safest bet would be to go with whoever’s leading the popular vote, anything else and we might have riots on our hands come convention time.
Onward. There’s no way in hell those Florida and Michigan votes are going to be counted. Not without major lawsuits being filed anyhow. Michigan and Florida were stripped of their delegates as punishment by the DNC for moving up their primaries. Now the DNC is paying for it. In punishing both states, the DNC managed to disenfranchise anyone who actually bothered showing up at the primaries, and now that Clinton has a shot at making a comeback she’s pushing for the votes cast in each state to count. Problem is that Obama and Edwards played by the rules, and in respecting the DNC’s decision, they pledged not to campaign in either state. Clinton did, and managed to win decisive majorities. So what are the DNC’s options, and with what results?
Option 1: Keep the status quo and don’t honor the votes cast in Florida and Michigan.
Option 2: Hold a re-do election, and allow the votes to count toward delegates.
Option 3: Try to translate the votes already cast in each state’s primaries into a delegate count.
Results: A flood of Equal Protection lawsuits based on systemic disenfranchisement a la Bush v. Gore, a whole lot of kicking and screaming from the Obama camp, and a whole lot of grins and high fives on the Republican side. If the DNC doesn’t drastically retool its procedures after this mishap, I’m moving to Canada.
They want an electoral mulligan. The big complaint I keep hearing it that the people of FL and MI deserve to have their voices heard. Damn straight they do AND they actually have. The democratic voters in both those states elected people to represent their interests who saw fit to ignore the rules of the national nominating process. The voters of FL and MI should have their say. They did and will. The next time they vote they ought to vote for people other than the knuckleheads that decided to disenfranchise them. 48 out of 50 states managed to get it right.
John fitness trainer new orleans
March 6, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Hmm, I think I would object to calling Tuesday’s primary results “big wins” for Clinton. Wasn’t the delegate allocation almost equal between Clinton and Obama? I seem to remember seeing 185 vs 184, but that was a few days ago. Isn’t it dispiriting that negative ads appear to have had such a marked effect? I guess it is true that America gets the leader it deserves.
jlelliott
March 6, 2008 at 3:43 pm
I suppose i meant they were big wins in the relative sense; had she lost she would be turning in her quitting papers right about now.
And thanks John for the interesting insight; I hadn’t considered it in that way, though you’re operating on the assumption that representatives actually do what the voters want; I’m of the opinion that the entire delegate system is flawed and needs to be scrapped, or more permanent rules need to be put into effect. All these ‘unwritten conventions’ are gonna have to go away for this to work.
Mir Kamran Meyer
March 6, 2008 at 5:31 pm
jlelliott
March 6, 2008 at 7:48 pm