The Political Fiend

Realclearpolitics.com has this great poll aggregation feature where all the major national polls are merged and averaged out. You should really check it out if you haven’t already. Yesterday the polling average showed Hillary leading Obama by nearly 13 points in California, going into Tuesday’s primary election. This morning, at around 11am, the same poll aggregator showed Clinton leading Obama by a mere 2.5 points. The New York Times called Hillary’s lead in the polls “statistically insignificant”.

I just checked the poll aggregator again, not 30 minutes ago at about 12 noon. Clinton’s lead has dropped again, now she leads Obama by a mere 1.5 points. Of course, slight changes of one or two points don’t really matter. Since all Democratic primaries serve up delegates proportionately, it’s likely that the two Dem frontrunners will just split California’s 441 freakin’ delegates. But, a couple more points than that, and Obama could conceivably win a delegate or two more than Clinton. I’ll make a prediction. By Super Tuesday, only 2 days away, Obama will lead Clinton in the California polls by at least 3 points. I have a feeling that Obama’s recent surge in California can be attributed to his recently adopted stance of supporting drivers’ licenses for undocumented immigrants.

Update: As predicted, the spread is continuing to rapidly shrink, As of 3pm today, Clinton leads Obama in California by 1 Point.